论中国—印度FTA的贸易基础与经济效应——基于贸易流的实证分析  

A Consideration of the Commercial Foundation for and the Economic Impact of a China-India FTA

作　　者：余振[1] 沈铭辉[2] 王琼[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2014年第2期12-27,156-157,共16页South Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大攻关项目"后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡的战略与路径研究"(11&ZD008);国家社科基金项目"中国-东盟自由贸易区中的产业集聚与区域协调发展研究"(10CGJ017);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地研究项目"中国参与东盟经济一体化问题研究"(13CEDR0002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"深度经济一体化;产业集聚与区域协调发展"(20100034)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：当前,尽管中印两国贸易绝对额增长迅速,但是双方贸易相互依赖程度以及贸易的互补性还有很大的提升空间。SMART模型测算的结果显示,中印FTA的建立会让中国和印度同时获得贸易增长带来的好处,并且减让前关税水平越高的产品将获得越大的贸易增长。为此,中国与印度应该携手共同推进双边FTA建设,具体采取的对策包括:推动中印多层次交流、不断提高两国市场的透明度、尽快建立贸易投资争端解决机制和临时保障机制、优先解决中国市场经济地位问题、积极推动中印贸易投资便利化等。While in absolute terms the volume of trade between China and India continues to grow rapidly,there still remains tremendous space for growth when it comes to level of trade interdependence and complementarity between the two countries.Analysis using SMART modeling indicates that the establishment of an FTA between China and India will enable both states to enjoy benefits from trade growth,while simultaneously reaping greater benefits from rapid growth in trade flows for products formerly subject to high tariff rates.For this reason,China and India should unite in promoting establishment of a bilateral FTA,which might be advanced as follows:(1) promote multi- tiered engagement and dialogue between the two countries;(2) enhance transparency across markets in each respective country;(3) rapidly establish institutions for settlement of trade disputes and provisional guarantee mechanisms;(4) prioritize resolution of issues related to the status of China' s market economy;(5) promote a favorable environment for trade and investment between the two countries.

关 键 词：中国一印度YFA 贸易基础 经济效 应对策 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]