基于集约利用的城市土地储备量预测——以肇庆市鼎湖区为例  

Forecasting the Urban Land Reserves Based on the Intensive Use——With Dinghu District,Zhaoqing City as Example

作　　者：张嘉惠[1] 杨木壮[1] 黄顺婷 李光灿[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第18期6020-6024,6028,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2012A031100011);住房与城乡建设部科研项目(2010-R2-8);广州市属高校科研项目(10A144)

摘　　要：基于土地集约利用潜力测算建设用地储备量,采用灰色预测和回归分析法等,测算了一定时期肇庆市鼎湖区的土地储备量。结果表明:鼎湖区2020年土地储备规模为1 316.023 5 hm2,其中土地储备存量规模为1 237.727 6 hm2,增量储备规模为78.295 9 hm2,说明了建设用地供给能够满足未来经济发展对建设用地的需求,预测值可为鼎湖区编制土地利用规划及用地计划提供参考。In order to estimate the land reserve of Dinghu District in Zhaoqing in a certain period, intensive land use potential of construction land reserve is based on the research, using gray forecasting and regression analysis method to explore the land reserve. The result shows that ： The land hank size in Dinghu District will reach to 1 316. 023 5 hm^2 in 2020, the size of the stock land reserve is 1 237. 727 6 hm^2 while the incremental scale is 78. 295 9 hm^2. The result also shows that the supply of the construction land can meet the economic demand, the predicted value of economic development and land use planning can be the reference of the future planning in Dinghu District.

关 键 词：土地储备量 集约利用 回归分析 灰色预测法 鼎湖区 

分 类 号：S28[农业科学—农业水土工程] F301[农业科学—农业工程]