基于实物期权法的油气勘探项目投资决策研究  

Research on the Investment Decision of Oil and Gas Exploration Project Based on the Real Options Law

作　　者：马行天[1] 蔡举[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安石油大学油气资源经济与管理研究中心,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第3期7-10,共4页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：结合油气勘探项目的特点,探讨油气勘探中存在的实物期权特性,以及对油气勘探项目经济评价时采用的实物期权法与净现值法的区别进行了分析。同时,将二叉树期权定价模型运用于油气勘探投资决策中,与传统的净现值法进行了比较,并指出在较高不确定性条件下的油气勘探项目的经济评价中,实物期权法是一种比较理想的投资分析方法。Combined with the characteristics of oil and gas exploration project, the analysis is carried out in this paper about the characteristics of real options that exist in oil and gas exploration as well as the differ- ence between the real options and NPV in the economic evaluation of oil and gas exploration project. Mean- while, the binomial option pricing model is used in the investment decisions of oil and gas exploration, and also compared with the traditional NPV method. Finally, it is pointed out that in the economic evaluation of oil and gas exploration projects under the condition of higher uncertainty, the real options is an ideal investment analysis.

关 键 词：实物期权 油气勘探 二叉树期权定价模型 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济]