《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》的主要结论和新认知  

Highlights and Understanding of Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability

作　　者：姜彤[1,2] 李修仓[1,2] 巢清尘[1] 袁佳双[3] 林而达[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]中国气象局科技与气候变化司,北京100081 [4]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2014年第3期157-166,共10页Climate Change Research

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划"IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响"(2012BAC20B05);国家重点基础研究发展973计划项

摘　　要：IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》认为,气候变化已经对全球自然和人类系统包括11种领域和9个区域(各大洲、两极地区和岛屿)都产生广泛和深远的影响。人类系统对气候变化风险,尤其是对极端气候,有着明显脆弱性和暴露度。未来气候变化将对自然和人类社会造成8种关键风险。气候变化增温幅度的提高将加剧自然和人类系统广泛的、严重的和不可逆影响的风险。通过迭代过程、协同效应为核心的灾害风险管理,自然和人类系统将减少暴露度和脆弱性,增强自然系统和人类社会恢复能力。可持续发展的社会需要适应与减缓相结合,经济、社会、技术,以及政治决策和行动向气候恢复能力路径转型。On 31 March 2014, Climate Change 2014： Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report （WGII AR5） was released. This report concluded that climate change had caused an extensive and far-reaching influence on global natural and human systems, including 11 sectors and 9 regions （i.e. all continents, polar regions and small islands）. Eight kinds of key risks that span sectors and regions are investigated to threaten the natural and human systems. The human systems have obvious vulnerability and exposure to climate risks, in particularly to the climatic extremes. The climatic resilience of natural system and human society should be enhanced through disaster risk management with core of iterative processes and synergies. Combined with mitigation, and transformations in economy, society, technology, and political decisions and actions, a sustainable social and economic development can enable climate-resilient pathways by effective adaptation.

关 键 词：气候变化 影响 适应 脆弱性 IPCC AR5 WGII 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]