辽宁省粮食产量波动及其结构分析  

The Fluctuations and Structure of Grain Production of Liaoning Province

作　　者：林丽霞[1] 翟印礼[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,辽宁沈阳110161

出　　处：《沈阳农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第2期147-151,共5页Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：粮食产量水平是关系到国计民生的重要战略问题。2013年中央经济工作会议和中央农村工作会议都着重强调粮食安全的重要意义。在现代周期理论的基础上,运用时间趋势分解法对辽宁省粮食产量历史数据进行分析发现,辽宁省粮食产量呈明显的周期性波动。进一步系统地分析粮食结构波动对辽宁省粮食产量波动的主要影响,结果表明,玉米对粮食产量波动的影响最显著,其次为水稻,其他粮食作物对粮食总产量波动影响较小。Grain production is a closely related strategic issue to national economy and people＇s livelihood. The central economic work conference and the central rural work conference held in 2013 both emphasized the significance of food security. Based on the Modern Cycle theory the Time Trend Decomposition method is employed to analyze the historic data of food production of Liaoning province. Result shows that an obvious cyclical fluctuation exists in the Liaoning grain production. And a further analysis of the effect the fluctuation of food structure produces on the food production structure of Liaoning province shows that corn has the most obvious impact on the fluctuation of food production, rice takes the second place and other food crops have a less obvious effect on the fluctuation of the total grain yield.

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食产量 粮食结构 现代周期理论 产量波动 辽宁省 

分 类 号：F307.11[经济管理—产业经济] F323.1