RCEP框架下降低技术性贸易壁垒的经济效应研究——基于GTAP模型的实证分析  

Research on Economic Effects of Reducing TBT under RCEP Framework:An Empirical Analysis Based on GTAP Model

作　　者：刘冰[1] 陈淑梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第6期91-98,共8页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"经济全球化新趋势下我国区域贸易协定的战略定位与贸易政策研究"(批准号:12BJY118)的阶段性成果;"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"(SKYD20130017)资助

摘　　要：2008年全球经济危机之后,技术性贸易壁垒业已成为发达国家及部分发展中国家实施贸易保护的首选工具,目前正在商谈的新型区域贸易协定也因此将降低成员国间技术性贸易壁垒作为主要谈判目标之一。本文采用GTAP模拟方法定量考察了我国正在参与谈判的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协议》(RCEP)框架下降低技术性贸易壁垒所带来的经济效应变动。研究结果显示,RCEP区域内实现零关税对成员国的经济总量、福利水平、贸易规模都有明显的正向变动效应,并且这种正向变动效应将随着区域内技术性贸易壁垒的逐步降低而逐渐扩大。After the 2008 global economic crisis, Technical Barrier to Trade （TBT） has become the preferred tool of trade protection in developed countries and some developing countries. Currently, the elimination of TBT among member countries is also being regarded as one of the main objectives of the new RTA negotiations. This research quantitatively investigates the economic effects of reducing TBT under the framework of RCEP by using GTAP model. The result indicates that achieving zero-tariff within RCEP has a positive effect on GDP, welfare and trade-scale to almost all member countries, and this positive effect will be continuously increased with the gradual reduction/elimination of TBT within RCEP.

关 键 词：RCEP 技术性贸易壁垒 GTAP模型 经济效应 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]