基于证据理论的转向架可靠性分配方法  

Reliability allocation method for bogie based on evidence theory

作　　者：李永华[1] 刘庆源 禹红杰[1] 高磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116028 [2]大连交通大学机械工程学院,辽宁大连116028

出　　处：《江西理工大学学报》2014年第3期47-50,共4页Journal of Jiangxi University of Science and Technology

基　　金：牵动动力国家重点实验室项目(TPL1312);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目(L2013182)

摘　　要：针对转向架可靠性分配中存在数据缺乏及诸多难以量化的不确定性因素问题,在传统评分分配法基础上提出利用证据理论进行可靠性分配方法.通过对影响转向架可靠性因素分析,建立转向架可靠性分配的数学模型,并将专家评判作为证据进行推理,以证据融合理论综合分析各领域专家的评价结果,作为不同影响因素下的各子系统的权重值,进而给各子系统分配合适的可靠性指标.结合实例分析表明该方法实用、可行,分配结果合理.A new method of reliability allocation for bogie is presented by using the evidence theory based on the traditional grade assign method for the lack data and uncertain factors of being hard to quantify. The reliability block diagrams model of bogie system is constructed to be used for the reliability allocation through the analysis of structure principle and function. The expert judgments are considered as an evidence for inference. The Dempster-shafer evidence theory is introduced to analyze different evaluation results from experts in different fields. Such reasoning results are defined as the weight value of each subsystems under different uncertain factors, and then the reliability indexes of each subsystem are obtained. The example analysis is used to show that the proposed method is practical and feasible, and the allocated results are reasonable.

关 键 词：证据理论 转向架 可靠性分配 权重系数 

分 类 号：U270.33[机械工程—车辆工程]