绿色城市工业烟尘排放规划路径选择  

Path selection of industrial dust emissions of green city

作　　者：迟国泰[1] 杜永强[1] 石宝峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学工商管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2014年第3期309-314,共6页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171031;71201018);教育部科学技术研究资助项目(2011-10);教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目(11YJC790157);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2012501013)

摘　　要：通过灰色预测模型得到煤炭消费量的预测值;在煤炭消费量预测值的基础上降低不同百分比的煤炭消费量增速,得到了煤炭消费量来来发展的4种不同情景;通过对四种情景下煤炭消费量进行分析,找到了一一时应的工业烟尘排放量;在煤炭消费量与工业烟尘排放量对应的四对值中,以煤炭消费量增速满足政府规划为约束条件,确定绿色城市工业烟尘排放的最佳规划路径.以大连市为实证对象,研究表明,弱干预情景是大连市"十二五"期间工业烟尘排放的最佳规划路径.This paper indicated the predicated index of future coal consumption through the grey prediction model. Through the decrease of coal consumption growth by different percentage based on the coal consumption forecasted values, this paper got four different scenarios of future coal consumption. According to the analysis of four kinds of coal consumption, the corresponding industrial dust emissions were found. Through the four values of coal consumption and the corresponding industrial dust emissions, set government planning need in the constraint condition of coal consumption growth, the optimal path for the green city planning industrial dust emissions was determined. By taking Dalian as an empirical study object, the results show that weak intervention scenario was the optimal industrial dust emissions path of the twelfth five-year plan for Dalian.

关 键 词：煤炭消费 绿色城市 工业烟尘排放 约束条件 最佳路径 

分 类 号：N945.11[自然科学总论—系统科学] F205[经济管理—国民经济]