基于GDP发展的煤炭产能控制研究  

COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY CONTROLS BASED ON GDP

作　　者：刘海滨[1] 吴必善[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《资源与产业》2014年第3期44-50,共7页Resources & Industries

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20100023110002);重庆国土资源可持续发展与创新研究会软科学研究项目(YJH201302)

摘　　要：通过对当前煤炭产能过剩的多方压力和煤炭产业所面临的"双约束"条件的分析引出煤炭产能调控概念,并在分析煤炭产业可持续发展的基础上,提出利用宏观经济政策、煤炭供应链管理及煤炭系统总效率等手段对我国煤炭产能实行综合调控。借助GDP发展和煤炭产能的关系预测煤炭产能的置信区间,并采用煤炭供应链管理相关数学模型及煤炭系统总效率公式对煤炭产能进一步定量优化计算,以达到煤炭产能调控的"双目标"发展模式,为我国煤炭工业的可持续发展提供支持与帮助。This paper, based on the situation of excess of coal production capacity and double constraints, introduces the concept of macroscopic control of coal production capacity, analyzes its sustainable development, and presents a macroscopic control of China＇s coal production capacity that incorporates macroscopic economic policy, coal chain management and coal overall efficiency. By means of GDP and coal efficiency function, this paper forecasts the confidence range of coal production capacity, and applies mathematic mode related to coal chain management and coal overall efficiency to quantitatively optimize the coal production capacity so as to achieve the double-objective development mode of coal production capacity, aiming at provide references for China＇s sustainable development of coal industry.

关 键 词：产能调控 置信区间 供应链管理 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]