金融化与工业化:作用路径及动态效应  

Financialization and Industrialization: Functionary Channels and Dynamic Effects

作　　者：谢家智[1] 王文涛[1] 江源[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2014年第4期48-56,172,共9页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AGL008);教育部人文社会科学规划项目(12YJA790149);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(SWU1309004;SWU1409310)

摘　　要：金融化和工业化在经济现代化进程中表现出复杂的关系和矛盾。基于我国1997—2011年31个省域的面板数据,运用非参数逐点回归方法实证检验金融化对工业化进程的作用渠道及动态效应。研究结论表明,我国的金融化对工业化的促进作用表现为弱化趋势,金融化与工业化进程之间存在"门槛效应"。通过对金融化影响工业化进程的作用路径分析发现,工业结构重化和资本深化两个渠道不仅存在而且渐近强化,而科技创新渠道则未显现。工业结构重化与资本深化渠道越来越难以持续促进工业化,局部"去工业化"和"经济虚化"的苗头开始显现,必须加快金融发展的结构调整和工业化的路径优化。Financial deepening and industrialization show complicated relations and contradictions in the process of economic modernization.By adopting 31 provincial panel data from 1997 through 2011,the action channels and dynamic effects between financialization and industrialization are tested empirically by using the method of non-parametric point wise regression.The results show that the trend of financialization on promoting industrialization becomes weakening and a'threshold effect'exist between financial development and industrialization process in China.Through the path analysis of the financial development affects the industrialization process,it has been performed that the two channels that China's financial development increasing the heaviness of industrial structure and the exacerbation of capital deepening not only exist but also asymptotic strengthen.However,the channel of technological innovation is not apparent.Since industrialization for the channels of the heaviness of industrial structure and capital deepening has been increasing unsustainably promoted,the symptom of local'de-industrialization'and'economic virtualization'take place.It is necessary to speed up the financial structure adjustment and the development of industrial path optimization.

关 键 词：金融化 工业化 工业结构重化 资本深化 非参数逐点回归 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]