美国对华光伏产业实施“双反”措施的经济效应分析——基于COMPAS局部均衡模型的实证研究  

An Analysis on the Economic Effects of the AD and CVD Duties Simultaneously Imposed on China's Solar Energy Industry by the U. S.

作　　者：宏结[1] 黄什 

机构地区：[1]中国政法大学商学院,北京102249

出　　处：《经济经纬》2014年第4期49-55,共7页Economic Survey

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL060);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(11YJA790043)

摘　　要：笔者运用可计算局部均衡的COMPAS模型,就美国对华光伏产业实施"双反"措施对中国和美国所产生的经济效应进行了实证分析。研究发现:(1)对于中国,美国"双反"措施对涉案光伏电池产品有明显的贸易抑制效应,使其在美市场份额和出口金额大幅下降。(2)对于美国,一方面,"双反"措施对其国内光伏产业有一定救济和保护效应,表现为产品市场价格上涨、行业产出和相关企业收益增加,同时也吸纳了更多的就业人数;但另一方面,由于美国光伏电池产品消费成本大幅提升,超过了生产者剩余增加额和关税收益之和,导致美国社会总福利受损。因此,美国对华实施"双反"措施是以牺牲国内消费者当前利益为代价的,能否促进美国光伏产业的长远发展尚需观察。笔者以此案为例,就中国战略性新兴产业在发展和国际化过程中如何应对"双反"措施引发的贸易摩擦提出政策建议。This paper uses Commercial Policy Analysis System（COMPAS） Model to make an empirical analysis on some specific eco- nomic effects caused by the AD and CVD duties simultaneously imposed on China＇ s solar energy industry by the U. S.. The conclusion shows ： （ 1 ） For China, the trade depression effect is evident, which makes the market share and total amount of Photovohaic Products from China suffer from a great decrease. （2） For the U. S. , firstly, there is an industrial protection effect to its solar energy industry, which results that the relative photovoltaic products＇ prices rise, industrial output and revenue increases and companies involved take in more labors. Secondly, the America＇ s total social welfare gets impaired because the total increase amount of producer surplus and tariff revenue is less than the decrease amount of consumer surplus. That is to say, in order to protect the development of its solar ener- gy industry, the AD and CVD duties imposed on China by the U.S. are at the sacrifice of U. S. consumers＇ benefits. But whether this commercial policy can help the American solar industry develop in the long run, we need a further investigation to make a conclusion. Accordingly, we put forward policy suggestions about how to deal with the AD and CVD issues for the development and globalization of China＇ s similar industries.

关 键 词：“双反”措施 光伏产业 COMPAS模型 经济效应 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F061.5