金融风险财政化的理论框架与实证分析  

A Theoretical Framework and an Empirical Test on the Fiscalization of Financial Risk

作　　者：秦海林[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第7期50-61,共12页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：天津市社科规划项目"缓解中小企业融资难的信贷担保制度创新研究"(TJYY13-019)

摘　　要：为了消弭金融风险的巨大负外部性,政府总是会在关键时刻采取金融风险财政化的措施,这是政治经济市场上一系列制度博弈的均衡解。在特定的制度环境中,如果初级行动团体能够打动次级行动团体,推出可以有效实现金融风险财政化的外部收益的制度装置,那么,金融风险财政化的政府行为就会出现。基于logit模型的检验结果显示,财政体制改革、金融深化和对外开放会显著影响政府对金融风险财政化的行为选择,而且这种冲击效应还在分税种改革前后截然不同。因此,政府在利用金融风险财政化的同时,还需要尊重资源配置的帕累托改进原则,进行配套的制度创新和促成制度耦合。In order to eliminate the huge negative externality of financial risk, an action of fiscalization of financial risk would be taken by government at a crucial moment, which is an equilibrium solution of a series of institutional games in the political and economic market. Once the secondary action group was encouraged by the first action group in a special institutional environment and an institutional instrument was presented to create the external income of institutional innovation, governmental action of fiscalization of financial risk would happen with an innovation of measures or changes of strength. The empirical results based upon logit model indicates that the reform of fiscal institution, financial deepening and DWKF indeed have an obvious effect upon governmental behavior choice of fiscalization of financial risk and such an effect presents different characteristics before and after the tax-sharing reform. In short, when government reasonably makes use of fiscalization of financial risk, it should carry out a matched institutional innovation so that an institutional coupling based on Pareto improvement of resource allocation would be constructed.

关 键 词：金融风险财政化 制度耦合 LOGIT模型 行动团体 外部收益 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]