通货膨胀目标制稳定通胀预期了吗——一项以全体采用国为观察对象的实证研究  

Can Inflation Targeting Stabilize Inflation Expectations?

作　　者：刘东华 

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学金融学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第7期62-71,共10页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：上海市教委科研创新项目重点课题(12ZS167);上海对外经贸大学085工程建设项目(Z085YYJJ13032;Z085YYJJ13033)的资助

摘　　要：通货膨胀目标制的兴起是20世纪90年代以来国际货币政策领域的一个重要发展。推崇者们认为,这一货币政策的"中心思想"在于稳定通胀预期;但已有的相关实证研究却结论各异。本文以通胀目标制的全部采用国为观察对象,在应用UC-SV模型测定出各国的通胀预期及其波动之后,运用量化对比分析的DID方法对此政策命题进行了检验。研究结果表明,在新兴市场国通胀目标制确实具有稳定通胀预期的政策效果。本研究对同为新兴市场国,并且现行货币政策面临的挑战愈发严峻、变革呼声不断的我国,提供了一个可资借鉴的研究素材,具有一定的政策启示。Since the early 1990s, Inflation Targeting （IT） has been adopted by an increased number of central banks. Some research literatures suggested that IT can stabilize the inflation expectations. This paper focuses on all countries that have adopted Inflation Targeting to estimate expected inflation and its volatility by using the UC-SV model, then examines the relationship between IT and the volatility of expected inflation by DID method. The research concluded that IT has played an important role in stabilizing inflation expectations in emerging market countries. Nowadays China is in urgent needs to transform its monetary policy, therefore, this conclusion will be useful for Cbina＇s policy making.

关 键 词：通货膨胀目标制 通胀预期 UC—SV模型 DID方法 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]