需求规模与服务业出口:一项跨国的经验研究  

Demand Scale and Service Export:An Empirical Study Across Countries

作　　者：陈启斐[1] 刘志彪[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国工商银行上海市分行 [2]南京财经大学

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第7期82-94,36,共14页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"我国服务业二元结构及其对城市居民收入分配的影响研究"(项目编号:13CJL021);国家自然科学基金项目"国内市场诱致;逆向研发外包与企业创新能力研究"(编号71302168);教育部社科青年项目"逆向外包的企业升级效应研究"(项目编号:10YJC790363)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：出口服务贸易量是否会随着需求规模的扩大而增加?针对这个问题,本文构建了一个包含工业、生产性服务业和消费性服务业三部门的贸易模型,并利用41个国家2000—2011年的面板数据进行实证检验,结果显示:(1)扩大市场需求规模有助于提高服务业出口贸易;(2)分行业检验发现,需求对生产性服务业出口的促进作用高于对消费性服务业出口的促进作用;(3)分阶段回归表明,金融危机之后随着外需的减弱,需求规模对服务业出口的促进作用在增强;(4)相对于低收入国家,需求规模扩张对高收入国家服务业出口的激励作用更强。因此,扩大内需战略不仅有助于完善国内市场,而且可以刺激服务业出口,提高国家的福利水平。Does service export increase with the expansion of domestic market demand？ To address this issue, this paper establishes a three-sector trade model which contains industry, producer services and consumer services, and conducts empirical tests based on panel data of 41 countries from 2000 to 2011. The results reveal that; （1） expansion of domestic market demand has positive effect on service export; （2） while dividing services export into producer services and consumer services, the empirical results indicate that domestic demands have more obvious promotion effect on export of producer services than that is on consumer services; （3） stage regression shows that, as the reduction in external demand, domestic demand scale promotes service export more obvious after financial crisis （4）compared to the low-income countries, expansion of demand scale has stronger incentive effect on service exports. Therefore, the strategy of expanding domestic demand will not only help optimize the domestic market, but also stimulate the export of services and maximize national welfare.

关 键 词：服务业出口 需求规模 关税 本土市场效应 

分 类 号：F752.68[经济管理—国际贸易]