基于随机模拟的浑河冲洪积扇地区地下水压采风险预报  

Risks Forecast Under Groundwater Compressive Exploitation Based on Random Simulation in Hun River's Alluvial Fan

作　　者：苏小四[1,2] 杜守营[1,2] 杜尚海[1,2] 宋宪宗[1,2] 邵广凯[1,2] 王璜[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室,长春130021 [2]吉林大学水资源与环境研究所,长春130021

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2014年第3期986-994,共9页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：国家级环保公益性行业科研基金重大项目(201009009)

摘　　要：在分析随机因素对水位模拟结果影响程度的基础上建立地下水流随机模拟模型,可为地下水资源风险管理和决策提供重要依据。以浑河冲洪积扇地区为研究区,基于蒙特卡罗原理建立了区域地下水流随机预报模型,对压采条件下的地下水位上升进行风险预测和评价。参数灵敏度分析结果表明,地下水水位对含水层渗透系数的变化最敏感,其次是给水度,而对河床沉积物渗透系数和降雨入渗补给系数的灵敏性较差,且渗透系数和给水度在其率定值附近增加或减少时,灵敏度系数随之增加或减小。研究表明,压缩开采地下水资源能够有效缓解地下水水位下降带来的环境问题,地下水开采量以每年5%的速度压采时,区内地下水水位平均上涨3.3m,但水位恢复的同时也可能诱发局部地下工程渗水,且地下建筑物的设计安全水位越低,渗水风险越大。Based on the analysis of the influence of random factors to water level simulation results, groundwater flow stochastic simulation model could provide important basis for risk management and decision-making of groundwater resources.The authors took Hun River’s alluvial fan as research area, adopted the Monte-Carlo method to build random forecast model of regional groundwater and forecast the risks of rising groundwater level under compressive exploitation.The results indicate that,hydraulic conductivity is the most sensitive factor for groundwater levels,and the specific yield is the secondary sensitive factor.The sensitivities of hydraulic conductivity of riverbed and infiltration coefficient of precipitation have lower sensitivity,and the sensitivities is proportional to the hydraulic and specific yield.Although compressing the exploitation quantity of groundwater can effectively prevent the cone of depression to expand,under the condition of compressive exploit of groundwater at an annual rate of 5.0%,the groundwater water level will rise in the average of 3.3 m.However,it will also bring groundwater seepage risks to underground engineering, and the lower the safe groundwater level designed,the higher risk of groundwater seepage to the underground engineering.

关 键 词：参数不确定性 随机模拟 风险预报 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]