Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the Blue Arctic conditions?  

作　　者：MA JieHua WANG HuiJun ZHANG Ying 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2014年第7期1494-1500,共7页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103);Norwegian Research Council project "East-Asia DecCen"

摘　　要：How would typhoon activity over the western North Pacific change for various scenarios of future global warming?Using the model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP 3)under the SRES A1B scenario,we generated summer(September)ice-free Arctic conditions,also referred to as Blue Arctic conditions,and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature(SST)and a set of CO2concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting changes in background conditions affecting typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.Our results show that,during typhoon season(June to October),atmospheric and ocean circulations over the western North Pacific would be significantly different from the present circulations.Changes in the vertical shear of zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)in the western North Pacific are favorable for westward and northward shift,respectively,of the location of typhoon genesis.Moreover,changes in the above fields over the key area may be conducive to less frequent typhoons.In addition,the tropical cyclone genesis potential index(GPI)over the western North Pacific would decrease(increase)east(west)of 150°E(140°E).How would typhoon activity over the western North Pacific change for various scenarios of future global warming？ Using the model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP 3） under the SRES A1B scenario, we generated summer （September） ice-free Arctic conditions, also referred to as Blue Arctic conditions, and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature （SST） and a set of CO2 concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting changes in background conditions affecting typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. Our results show that, during typhoon season （June to October）, atmospheric and ocean circulations over the western North Pacific would be significantly different from the present circulations. Changes in the vertical shear of zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation （OLR） in the western North Pacific are favorable for westward and northward shift, respectively, of the location of typhoon genesis. Moreover, changes in the above fields over the key area may be conducive to less frequent typhoons. In addition, the tropical cyclone genesis potential index （GPI） over the western North Pacific would decrease （increase） east （west） of 150°E （140°E）.

关 键 词：Blue Arctic sea ice climate change western North Pacific TYPHOON 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P731.15