基于主成分分析法的液体管道泄漏后果综合评价模型  

Comprehensive assessment model of liquid pipeline leakage consequences based on principle component analysis

作　　者：王晓丽[1] 魏志兵 彭士涛[1,2] 关文玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学环境科学与安全工程学院,天津300384 [2]交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究所水路交通环境保护技术交通行业重点实验室,天津300456

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2014年第5期84-89,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(21206064);交通运输部科技项目(2011329224250);天津市高等学校教学改革重点项目(B01-0829)

摘　　要：基于主成分分析和后果评价模型,提出了一种液体管道泄漏后果综合评价方法。将液体管道泄漏后果划分为火灾、爆炸和中毒3大类14个基本指标,建立后果评价指标体系。在VCE等后果模拟计算的基础上得到初始数据,运用SPSS软件处理相关数据,使用主成分分析法得到各指标相互独立的综合评价模型。选择天津港某码头进行实例分析,运用该方法对该港口储运的15类有代表性液体危险化学品进行综合评价,得到了各化学品的综合评价值以及按照其发生泄漏后危险性大小的排序。结果表明,该方法适用于评价港口码头等储运多种液体危险化学品的行业。Based on principle component analysis and consequences model , a comprehensive evaluation model for the consequence of petrochemical pipeline leakage accident was proposed .Leakage consequence of petrochemical pipeline was divided into 14 indexes in three kinds , including fire accident , explosion accident and intoxication ac-cident, to build a consequence indicator system .The principle component analysis was used to get comprehensive evaluation model in which each index （ PCA） of evaluation model was independent of each other on the basic of consequence analog calculation of VCE to get original data and the data was processed by SPSS software .A Wharf of Tianjin port was selected as the studying object , and the method was used to evaluate 15 typical liquid dangerous chemicals which were stored and transported on the port , the comprehensive evaluation value of various chemicals and the rank of leakage risk were given in the end .The results showed that this method is suitable for the evaluation of ports and other industries with storage and transportation of various liquid dangerous chemicals .

关 键 词：主成分分析 液体管道泄漏 后果模型 综合评价 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]