近50a东北地区冷冬气候变化特征分析  

Climatic variation characteristics in cold winter over Northeast China,1961—2010

作　　者：王雷[1] 吴正方[1] 杜海波[1] 宗盛伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《东北师大学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期117-124,共8页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171038);吉林省自然科学基金资助项目(20101561)

摘　　要：参照中华人民共和国国家标准《暖冬等级》，对单站、区域冷冬进行了定义和等级划分，并自定义了冷冬强度及冷冬严重度指数．在此基础上，利用1961—2010年东北地区90个气象观测站的地面气象观测资料，对东北地区1961—2010年冷冬事件的时空分布规律进行了分析．结果表明：1961-2010年东北各站冬季均表现出增温的趋势，增温的幅度为每10年0．02℃～0．94℃，在区域上由西往东增温幅度逐渐变大．就整个东北地区而言，近50a冬季平均气温呈显著的上升趋势，为每10年0．55℃．东北地区各站冷冬发生的频率为30％～48％，总体的变化趋势为从东南往西北再向东北逐渐降低．近50a东北地区各站点冷冬强度为1．18～2．20，但冷冬强度的分布较为复杂，没有明显的空间格局；各站点冷冬严重度为0．22～0．68，其分布大致为从东南往西北再向东北逐渐减弱．近50a东北地区冷冬指数呈明显的下降趋势，线性趋势为每10年-10．47％，通过了95％的显著性检验．LaNina现象的发生可能对东北地区出现冷冬的影响不大，而北极涛动的负异常可能是东北地区发生冷冬事件的主要原因．According to the China national standard of warm winter grade, define the grade of single station and regional cold winter （CW） and propose the CW intensity index （CWlI） and the CW severity index （CWSI）. Based on the recorded data of 90 meteorological stations over Northeast China during 1961--2010, analyze the spatio-temporal variations of CW. The results show that the mean temperature of each station in winter shows a clear increasing trend with the value of 0.02℃-0.94℃ per ten years over Northeast China in the last 50 years, The positive amplitude gradually increases from west to east. The mean temperature of the entire region in winter also shows an obvious increasing trend with the value of 0.55℃ per ten years. The CW frequency for single station is 30%- 48% with a decreasing trend on the southeast-northwest-northeast direction. CWII of each station is within the range of 1.18-2.20 over Northeast China in the last 50 years. However,the distribution of CWlI is complex and shows a non-obvious spatial pattern. CWSI of each station is in the range of 0.22-0. 68 with a weakened trend on the southeast-northwest-northeast direction. Regional cold winter index has an obvious decreasing trend with the value of -10.47% per ten years. The change trend is significant at the 0.05 confidence level. La Nina phenomenon may not have obvious effect on the occurrence of CW in Northeast China. The Arctic Oscillation negative anomalies may be the main reason for the cold winter events over Northeast China.

关 键 词：冷冬 冷冬严重度 东北地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]