不同变化环境背景下非平稳性洪水频率对比研究  

Comparative study on non-stationary flood frequency analysis in different backgrounds of changing environment

作　　者：叶长青[1,2,3] 陈晓宏[2,3] 张家鸣 张丽娟[2,3] 朱爱萍[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学环境与植物保护学院,海口570228 [2]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州510275 [3]华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广州510275

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第3期1-9,18,共10页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：中西部高校项目(ZXBJH-XK004);国家自然科学基金重点和重大项目(50839005,51190091);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目专题(200901043-3);广东省科技厅项目(2010B050300010);广东省水利科技创新项目(2009-39);中山大学重大项目培育和新兴交叉学科项目(10lgzd11);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428405);国家自然科学基金(51209095)

摘　　要：世界上众多江河洪水序列形成的环境背景"一致性"已不复存在,传统极值流量分析的"极值理论"须要修正以适应这些现象。采用时间变化矩模型对武江坪石站和东江龙川站年最大日流量序列进行非平稳性处理,选择5种分布线型、8种趋势模型共40种模型进行比较。结果表明,坪石站对数正态分布(LN2)搭配均值和标准差相关且具有线性趋势模型(CL)拟合最好;龙川站LN2分布搭配均值和标准差相关且具有抛物线趋势模型(CP)拟合效果最优。对同一设计标准P,洪水设计值均随时间存在显著变化关系。坪石站在气候与植被下降后非平稳性洪水设计值随时间由小增大;而龙川站受气候与人类活动影响特别是水库调蓄后洪水设计值随时间由大变小。非平稳性背景下,传统洪水重现期概念应该被修正。No ＂stationarity＂ exists any longer in environmental backgrounds for the formation of flood series of various rivers in the world, and traditional extreme value flow analysis, i.e. extreme value theory must be amended to adapt to these phenomena. This study adopted a non-stationary processing method of time-varying moments to analyze and calculate the annual maximum daily flow series at the Pingshi station of Wujiang River and the Longchuan stations of East River, using five types of distribution curves and eight kinds of trend models, i.e. totally 40 models for comparison. The results show that best fitting occurs in two combinations： two-parameter lognormal （LN2） distribution with a CL model at Pingshi （mean and standard deviation have linear trends and are related by a constant）, and LN2 distribution with a CP model at Longchuan （mean and standard deviation have parabolic trends and are related by a constant）. At the same flood design standard P, the design value alters over time significantly. At Pingshi the design value of non-stationary flood series changes from low to high over time in the background of climate, land use and cover change, while at Longchuan from high to low over time after hydraulic engineering regulation. In the context of non-stationarity, the traditional concept of flood return period should be amended.

关 键 词：水文学 频率分析 非平稳性 时变统计参数 概率分布函数 极值流量 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]