基于风险偏好的梯级水电站合约电量月度分解模型研究  

Study on monthly decomposition model of contract electric energy for cascade hydropower stations based on risk appetite

作　　者：原文林[1] 曲晓宁[1] 方洪斌[1] 黄河[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,郑州450002

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第3期61-67,共7页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51109189);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20100471007)

摘　　要：本文在梯级水电站历史发电特征分析的基础上,以梯级水电站收益最大为目标函数,以风险偏好因子体现调度决策者的风险偏好,建立了基于风险偏好的梯级水电站合约电量月度分解模型。通过乌江梯级水电站实例分析,验证了该模型的合理性和可行性,为水电在电力市场中竞争提供了理论依据。This paper describes a monthly decomposition model of contract energy based on risk appetite for cascade hydropower stations. This model maximizes hydropower income and combines the decision maker＇s appetite for risk. It has been verifies in a case study of the Wujiang cascade hydropower stations. The results would provide a theoretical basis for further study of hydropower competition in power market.

关 键 词：电力市场 梯级水电站 风险偏好 合约电量 分解模型 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]