非煤矿山安全事故的时间序列模型分析  

Analysis of time sequence model for safety accident in non-coal mines

作　　者：谢峰[1] 许梦国[1] 王平[1] 李俊超[1] 甘仕伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《化工矿物与加工》2014年第6期31-33,共3页Industrial Minerals & Processing

摘　　要：应用季节时间序列资料分析方法——简易时间序列季节周期回归模型,以2004~2007年非煤矿山各季度事故发生起数和死亡人数的统计资料为依据,计算出非煤矿山安全事故的季节周期回归模型,由此预测2008年全国非煤矿山的安全事故起数和死亡人数,与实际值进行卡方检验,确定模型建立的合理性。季节周期回归模型可以用于预测非煤矿山各季节事故起数和死亡人数,推算出矿山容易发生全事故的季节,为矿山安全事故的预防提供依据。The seasonal cycle regression model for safety accidents in the non-coal mines is calculated by using seasonal time series data analysis method-simple time series seasonal cycle regression model based on the statistic data of the number of safety accidents and caused deaths in the non-coal mines for the year 2004 ~ 2007 to predict the safety accidents and deaths occurred in the China＇s non-coal mines in2008 and to determine the rationality of the model in the chi-square tests with the actual values.The seasonal cycle regression model can be applied to predict the number of seasonal accidents and deaths occurred in the non-coal mines and to project the season prone to mine accidents,providing a basis for prevention of safety accident in mines.

关 键 词：季节周期回归模型 预测 非煤矿山 安全事故 

分 类 号：TD79[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]