三峡库区陆气耦合研究及应用  

A Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrological Modeling System and Its Application for Three Gorges Reservoir Region

作　　者：彭艳[1,2,3] 周建中[1] 贾梦[1] 曾小凡[1] 唐造造[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]水电与数字化工程学院华中科技大学,湖北武汉430074 [2]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510635 [3]广东省山洪灾害突发事件应急技术研究中心,广东广州510635

出　　处：《水文》2014年第3期11-16,65,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAB29B0806);科技部;水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701008);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20100142110012)

摘　　要：以延长洪水预见期、提高预报精度为目标,研究气象水文耦合机制,利用数值天气预报模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）驱动分布式VIC（Variable Infiltration Capacity）水文模型,构建三峡库区陆气耦合洪水预报系统,并对2007～2008年期间四场暴雨洪水进行日滚动预报试验.结果表明,WRF模式在三峡库区内有着良好的短期降水预报精度,基于数值天气预报模式和分布式水文模型的陆气耦合洪水预报系统能有效延长三峡入库洪水预见期、提高洪水预报精度,具有较大的应用潜力.As to get longer flood lead-time and greater accuracy,VIC （Variable Infiltration Capacity） model for Three-Gorge Reach basin was calibrated and validated,then the high-resolution numerical atmospheric WRF （Weather Research and Forecasting） model was one-way coupled to the VIC model after temporal-spatial scale transformation in this paper.Choosing four floods as forecast experiment,the results show that WRF performs reasonably well in short-term quantitative precipitation forecast and the VIC model using WRF precipitation and temperature showed a good result of flood timing and peak discharges in the prediction of the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow.

关 键 词：陆气耦合 VIC模型 WRF模式 三峡库区 洪水预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]