气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域内蒙段河川径流的影响分析  

Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Neimeng Reach of Luanhe River

作　　者：王亮[1,2] 高瑞忠[1] 刘玉才 张娜 李凤玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古兴安盟水文勘测局,内蒙古乌兰浩特137400 [3]阿拉善乌海水文勘测局,内蒙古巴彦浩特750306

出　　处：《水文》2014年第3期70-79,共10页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201001039);内蒙古自然科学基金(2011BS0602);内蒙古重大基础研究开放课题(2011)

摘　　要：河川径流不仅受气候因素的直接影响,受人类活动的影响也非常显著。滦河流域内蒙段地处我国干旱半干旱地区,水土流失严重,生态环境恶劣。经分析可知,近50年研究区径流呈明显下降趋势。本文运用SWAT模型研究分析了气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响,结果表明流域河川径流受人类活动影响要大于气候变化的影响,其中人类活动的间接影响要大于直接影响。同时验证了SWAT模型在干旱半干旱地区是适用的。Runoff is not only impacted by the climate change but also impacted by the human activities.The Luanhe River Basin in Inner Mongolia is located in the arid and semiarid areas of China,where there is serious water and soil loss and the environment is badly damaged.According to the analysis,the runoff is in descend trend in resent 50 years.In this paper,the SWAT hydrological model was employed to analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff.The result shows that the impact of human activities is larger than climate change,and the indirect human activities are the main reasons for runoff reduction.

关 键 词：径流 SWAT模型 气候变化 人类活动 影响分析 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]