基于宏观经济因素新视角的国库现金流预测  

Prediction on the Treasury's Cash Flow in View of Macroeconomics Factors

作　　者：白彦锋[1] 李龙屿 金恺[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081

出　　处：《湖南财政经济学院学报》2014年第3期5-16,共12页Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国税制改革风险问题研究"(项目编号:11JJD790037);中央财经大学青年创新团队"中国生态文明建设中的能源财政问题研究";北京哲学社会科学规划项目"首都地区征收交通拥挤税与烟尘排放税的可行性分析--北京大气污染治理的财税政策匹配"(项目编号:13JGB122);中财-鹏元地方财政投融资研究所资助

摘　　要：基于国库现金余额2007年至2012年的月度数据,利用VAR模型对国库现金余额变化与我国宏观经济变量之间动态响应机制进行研究。研究发现,我国国库现金余额变动情况受宏观经济因素变动影响并不显著,而国库现金余额的变动在一定程度上会对国内生产总值、货币供应量、居民消费价格指数等宏观变量产生不同程度的影响。在此基础上,结合传统基于时间序列算法的国库现金流预测模型,建立涵盖宏观经济因素与时间序列变化两个维度的国库现金流预测模型,为制定国库现金目标余额并确定最优底额,进而为通过国库现金的有效管理、促进我国经济均衡发展提供新的思路。By analyzing the data from 2007 to 2012 with VAR model, this paper explores the connections between treasury＇ s cash and factors in the macroeconomics field. The results show that the state treasury cash balance changes affected by macro- economic factors change is not signlficant, and it has different degrees of impact to macroscopic variables varying such as gross domestic product （GDP）, money supply and consumer price index to a certain extent. On this basis, combining with the traditional state treasury cash flow prediction model based on time sequence algorithm, this paper builds a state treasury cash flow prediction model covering macroeconomic factors and time sequence change two dimensions, to set goals balance of treasury cash and determine optimum bottom, further to provide new ideas for promoting the balanced development of economy through the effective management of the state treasury cash in China.

关 键 词：国库现金余额 时间序列预测模型 宏观经济影响 

分 类 号：F20[经济管理—国民经济]