中国对外直接投资:过度抑或不足  

Overinvestment or Underinvestment:an Empirical Analysis on China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：乔晶[1] 胡兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学管理学院 [2]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2014年第7期38-51,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(12CJY084);教育部人文社科研究项目(11XJC790003);重庆工商大学博士科研启动项目(670100465)的资助

摘　　要：基于2003-2011年中国对全球118个国家或地区的对外直接投资数据，运用双边随机前沿模型测算了中国投资的前沿水平以及实际投资相对于前沿水平的偏离程度。结果发现，下偏效应远大于上偏效应，近年来蓬勃发展的中国对外直接投资整体表现为投资不足而非投资过度，投资不足程度平均为26．59％。各洲间投资不足严重程度不同，对欧洲投资不足程度比对北美高出近10个百分点，但投资不足的现象随着时间的推移趋向缓解。对发达国家、制度质量和技术水平较高国家或地区组的投资不足程度比其各自对照组的不足程度更严重，对资源丰富国家或地区的投资不足程度比其对照组不足程度低，双边投资协定一定程度上可以缓解对外直接投资不足问题。The article employs the two-tier stochastic frontier model to estimate the forefront level of China＇ investment, and the actual investment＇s deviation relative to fore- front level based on the 118 selected economies over the period from 2003 to 2011. The empirical results demonstrate that both higher and lower partial factors have significant effects on Chinese OFDI, while that of the latter is dominant, and the net effect of these two factors leads to a nearly 26.59% underinvestment of China＇s OFDI. Underinvestment severity among continents is varied. Degree of underinvestment to Europe is nearly 10% higher than that to North America. However, the phenomenon of underinvestment tends to ease over time. The underinvestment to developed countries, institutional quality and technical level higher national or regional groups are more serious than those in respective control groups. The degree of underinvestment in resource-rich countries or regions is lower than that in respective groups. To some extent, bilateral investment treaties can re- lieve the shortage of outward foreign direct investment.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 双边随机前沿模型 投资不足 

分 类 号：F125.5[经济管理—世界经济]