蒙特卡洛技术在污水厂BOT项目风险分析中的应用  

Application of Monte Carlo Technique to Investment Risk Analysis of BOT Project in Wastewater Treatment Plant

作　　者：张勤[1] 黄辉[1] 傅斌[1] 方路行 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400045

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2014年第13期96-100,共5页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07315-006)

摘　　要：污水厂BOT项目由于投资周期长、风险因素多,采用常规的投资风险评价方法对其进行经济评价和投资决策难度较大,而蒙特卡洛模拟技术具有成本低、风险小、环境条件要求低、可信度高等优点,因此将其应用到污水厂项目风险评价中。首先,分析了项目投资风险因素;然后,以某计划投资的污水厂(规模为3×104m3/d、主体工艺为氧化沟)为例,采用净现值评价指标确定了该项目的投资风险概率分布;最后,建立了污水厂BOT项目投资净现值计算模型,并对该项目进行了10 000次风险模拟分析。结果表明,该项目盈利几率较高,风险概率很小,较适合投资。The economic evaluation and investment decisions of a WWTP BOT project are much more difficult to be made by the conventional evaluation methods because of its longer investment cycle and various risk factors. Based on this, Monte Carlo simulation technique was applied to the economic e- valuation of WWTP with the advantages of its low cost, little risk, few requirements for environmental conditions and high credibility. The project investment risks were analyzed, and the distribution of the in- vestment risk probability of a planned wastewater treatment plant with capacity of 3 x 104 m3/d and oxida- tion ditch process was determined by net present value evaluation. The mathematical model of net present value for the investment of the WWTP BOT project was established, and 10 000 times simulations were performed. The results showed that this project was much more suitable for investment with higher profit- ability and lower risk.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛模拟技术 污水厂 净现值 BOT 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程]