突发事件网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为仿真研究  

The Research of Crowd Simulation in the Evolution Process of Web Public Opinion of Unexpected Event

作　　者：强韶华[1,2] 吴鹏[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济管理学院南京210016 [2]南京工业大学土木工程学院南京211800 [3]南京理工大学经济管理学院南京210094

出　　处：《现代图书情报技术》2014年第6期71-78,共8页New Technology of Library and Information Service

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“突发事件网络舆情演变过程中的人群仿真研究”(项目编号:71273132)的研究成果之一

摘　　要：【目的】以突发事件中的网民群体为研究对象,探索突发事件网络舆情演变的内在规律。【方法】引入人群仿真理论,将网民映射为智能体,探究突发事件网络舆情演变过程中网民群体行为特征和建模方法,分析其行为演化的一般规律。【结果】实验结果显示,意见领袖的存在可以缩短突发事件舆情演变所需的时间,政府介入有助于突发事件网络舆情更快平息。【局限】对于突发事件中网民群体行为的仿真相对比较简单,未能全面涉及影响突发事件网络舆情演变的因素。【结论】本研究可以在突发事件应急管理中预测网络舆情演变的路径,从而支持网络舆情监控和信息公开策略的制定。[Objective] Taking netizen crowd as the central of the research, the paper aims to discover the inner rule of the public opinion evolution in the unexpected event. [Methods] The study proposes the theory of crowd simulation which takes the individual as the agent to explain the behavior rule of crowd in a certain context and the inner mechanism of evolution of Web public opinion in unexpected events. [Results] Experimental results show that opinion leaders can reduce the evolution hours. And the government has a great impact on putting down the Web public opinion. [Limitations] The crowd simulation of Web public opinion in the unexpected event is fairly simple. Many more factors have not been taken into consideration. [Conclusions] This achievement can be used to forecast the evolution path of Web public opinion in the emergency management of unexpected event, and support the establishment of Web public opinion strategy and information disclosure strategy.

关 键 词：突发事件 网络舆情 人群仿真 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]