基于主成分-集对分析法的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案评估模型研究  

Research on the Evaluation Model of Prediction Scheme Regarding Ammunition Consumption of the Army in Joint-fire Attacks Based on the Principal Component-Set Pair Analysis

作　　者：赵志宁[1,2] 米东[1] 石全[1] 唐坚[3] 车延连 袁清海[4] 冯新华[4] 马国江 白文瑞 王锐 吕涛 

机构地区：[1]军械工程学院装备指挥与管理学院,河北石家庄050003 [2]总参炮兵训练基地,河北宣化075100 [3]白求恩医务士官学校,河北石家庄050081 [4]南京炮兵学院,江苏南京211132 [5]防化学院,北京102205

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第11期222-229,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：2012年全军军事类研究生资助课题(2012JY002-429);国防预研基金

摘　　要：陆军作为联合火力打击的重要组成部分,具有反应快、火力猛、精度高、机动灵活的特点,是实施联合火力打击不可缺少的重要力量.陆军在联合火力打击中,如何快速准确的从多种弹药预测方案中分析、评估优选出最佳的陆军弹药消耗预测方案,对提高陆军快速反应能力,提升部队战斗力,打赢未来战争至关重要.为此,在分析影响联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗主要因素的基础上,构建了符合联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗特点的评估指标体系,提出了一种基于主成分和集对分析法综合分析的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的评估优选方法,通过方法可求得指标权重,最终评估优选出最佳的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案.结合实例分析,验证构建的评估模型能够用于多种联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的评估优选,为进一步提高联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案提供技术指导.As an important component in joint-fire attacks, the army has such features asquick response, fierce fire, high accuracy and high level of flexibility, which make it an in-dispensable force in joint-fire attacks. In joint-fire attacks, how to analyze and optimize thebest prediction scheme regarding ammunition consumption of the army is vital for improvingthe army＇s response capability and fighting capacity as well as help to win the wars in thefuture. Therefore, apart from analyzing the major factors that affect the ammunition con-sumption of the army in joint-fire attacks, the text also constructs an evaluation quota systemin accordance with the features of the ammunition consumption in joint-fire attacks and putforward a method of evaluating and optimizing the ammunition consumption in joint-fire at-tacks based on a comprehensive analysis method combining principal component analysis andset-pair analysis, through which the quota weight can be obtained. Finally, the predictionscheme regarding ammunition consumption of the army in joint-fire attacks will be evaluatedand optimized and the best will be selected. Combined with example analysis, the evaluationquota system constructed in the text can be used to evaluate and optimize the army＇s ammunition consumption in various joint-fire attacks, which provides technical support for thefurther improvement of the prediction scheme concerning the ammunition consumption of thearmy.

关 键 词：主成分分析 联合火力打击 集对分析 预测方案 评估 弹药消耗 

分 类 号：E271[军事—军事理论]