基于灰色可拓优度的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案评估研究  

Research on the Evaluation Model of Prediction Scheme Regarding Ammunition Consumption of the Army in Joint-fire Attacks Based on Grey-Extension Optimal

作　　者：赵志宁[1,2] 米东[1] 石全[1] 唐坚[3] 车延连 冯新华[4] 袁清海[4] 冯玉林 白文瑞 王忠武 王锐 吕涛 

机构地区：[1]军械工程学院,河北石家庄050003 [2]总参炮兵训练基地,河北宣化075100 [3]白求恩医务士官学校,河北石家庄050081 [4]南京炮兵学院,江苏南京211132 [5]防化学院,北京102205

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第12期260-269,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：2012年全军军事类研究生资助课题;课题编号:2012JY002-429;国防预研基金

摘　　要：弹药是构成武器系统的重要组成部分,是军队战斗力的重要构成因素,弹药消耗预测是一个复杂的问题,它是弹药保障的基本依据,是我军做好军事斗争装备准备弹药物资精确化保障的重要条件.在联合火力打击中的陆军弹药消耗预测影响因素多,不确定性强,许多因素难以在预测过程中定量地计算,如何确定和优选联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案是否达到规定要求或从中优选出最佳的方案是一个复杂的评估问题.在分析联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗影响因素的基础上,构建了包含打击目标、作战持续时间、作战任务、参战部队综合战斗力指数、指挥信息系统信息化程度、武器装备及弹药性能等6个2级指标共26个底层指标的评估指标体系,基于灰色模糊的思想和层析分析法(AHP)综合确定指标权重,在此基础上进一步构建了联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的可拓优度评估模型,运用此模型对联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的进行总体评估,评估结果表明模型是一种有效的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案评估方法,可为联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的确定和评估优选提供新的有效途径.Ammunition is very important for creating battle effectiveness as a dominating part of the weapon system. Ammunition consumption, which is the important condition for ammunition accurate support, is complicated problem. In joint-fire attacks, how to analyze and optimize the best prediction scheme regarding ammunition consumption of the army is vi- tal for improving the army＇s response capability and fighting capacity as well as help to win the wars in the future. Therefore, based on analyzing the major factors that affect the ammuni- tion consumption of the army in joint-fire attacks, an evaluation quota system was established. The indexes system which contained 6 second tier indexes such as objective, campaign du- ration, campaign assignment, army battle effectiveness of joining battle, informatization of command system and capability of armament, 26 bottom tier indexes in all. A evaluation was built up to obtain army ammunition consumption in joint-fire attacks, based on ensuring the index weight applied with the grey-fuzzy idea and analytic hierarchy process（AHP）, and founding the extension optimal evaluation model further. The practice indicates that the eval- uated model brought forward can be used for evaluating and instructing the army ammunition consumption in joint-fire attacks.

关 键 词：弹药消耗 联合火力打击 陆军 灰色模糊 可拓优度 

分 类 号：E251[军事—军事理论]