我国石油消费的国际经济关系研究——兼论我国的石油安全  

Research on the International Economic Relations of China's Oil Consumption and on China's Oil Security

作　　者：俞培果[1] 苏伟洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学经济管理学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《西南科技大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第3期16-19,53,共5页Journal of Southwest University of Science and Technology:Philosophy and Social Science Edition

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地"四川石油天然气发展研究中心"项目编号(SKB12-01)项目成果

摘　　要：我国石油消费与其它国家存在多方面经济关系,分析表明,我国石油消费使石油输出国取得了巨额收益,使世界领先的石油公司取得了丰厚利润,使制造业发达国家的相关产业得以实现高增值。充足的石油供给是汽车大国将我国作为其市场的必要条件。格兰杰因果关系检验表明,我国石油消费是石油资源国、世界领先石油公司所属国、制造业发达国经济增长的格兰杰原因;我国汽车销售量是汽车生产大国经济增长的格兰杰原因,证实了以上分析。因此,除非发生重大军事冲突,世界强国不会轻易阻断我国的运油航线。当然,考虑到世界政治、军事形势的莫测变化,建立多渠道的石油资源供应保障体系和保持适量的石油贮备还是必要的。There are many economic relations between China＇ s oil consumption and other countries. An analysis shows that China＇ s oil consumption brings huge gains for the oil exporting countries and huge profits for the leading oil companies in the world, and makes the countries which are developed in manufacturing industries achieve high added value in relevant industries. Adequate oil supply is a necessary condition for auto-producing countries to take our country as a market. Granger causality test shows that China＇ s oil con- sumption is a Granger cause of economic growth of countries with oil resources, of countries with the world＇ s leading oil companies, and of countries developed in manufacturing industries. China＇ s automobile sale volume is a Granger cause of economic growth of the automobile producing countries, confirming the above analysis. Therefore, unless a major military conflict arises, world powers would not easily cut off our oil routes. Of course, in view of the world＇ s unpredictable political and military situation change, it is necessary to establish a multi-channel supply system and maintain a right amount of oil reserve.

关 键 词：中国石油消费 国际经济关系 因果关系检验 石油安全 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]