基于德尔菲法的江西省“三农”气象服务效益评估  

BENEFIT ASSESSMENT FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR THREE RURAL ISSUES IN JIANGXI BASED ON DELPHI METHOD

作　　者：钟飞[1,2] 马中元[1] 聂秋生[1] 苏俐敏 张恒桃 

机构地区：[1]江西省气象科学研究所,江西南昌330046 [2]吉安市气象局,江西吉安343000 [3]宜春市气象局,江西宜春336000 [4]九江市气象局,江西九江332900

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2013年第4期39-44,共6页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：江西省气象局2012年重点项目"气象服务‘三农’效益评估技术研究"

摘　　要：利用江西省2012年统计年鉴和20个农业气象服务体系和农村气象灾害防御体系(简称"两个体系")建设实施县的专家测评调查结果(针对农业、林业、牧业、渔业4大重点行业和电力、水利、交通3个高相关行业的调查结果),采用德尔菲法(专家评估法),对2010—2013年江西省"三农"气象服务效益进行分析评估。结果表明,2010—2012年江西省农业总产值气象服务贡献率稳定在4.00%—4.90%,2012年"三农"气象服务对农业总产值效益的新增贡献率为2.6%。2010—2013年"三农"气象服务效益评估值分别为76.04、108.14、104.36和116.07亿元,投入产出比为1:3.3—1:7.8,2013年3个高相关行业的产值贡献率为4.0%—5.0%。Using the 2012 statistical yearbook of Jiangxi province and the questionnaire results from 20 counties with agricultural meteorological service system and rural meteorological disaster prevention system, the Delphi method was used to assess the benefit of meteorological service for three rural issues during 2010-2013 in Jiangxi Province. The results show that the agriculture meteorological service contribution rate for the total output value of agriculture kept on 4.00%-4.90% during 2010-2012 in Jiangxi province. The ＂three rural issues＂contribution rate was 2.6%. From 2010 to 2013, the evaluation values concerning with meteorological service for ＂three rural issues＂ reached 76.04, 108.14, 104.36 and 116.07 billion Yuan, and the input and output ratio of meteorological service maintained at 1：3.3 to 1：7.8 level, respectively. In addition, the contribution ratio of three closely related industries output value was 4.0%-5.0%.

关 键 词：“三农”气象服务 效益评估 德尔菲法 贡献率. 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]