杭州冬季塑料大棚内气温变化特征及日最低气温预报模型  

Temperature Variation Characteristic and Daily Minimum Temperature Forecast Inside Plastic Greenhouse in Winter in Hangzhou

作　　者：范辽生[1] 朱兰娟[1] 柴伟国[2] 金志凤[3] 

机构地区：[1]杭州市气象局,杭州310051 [2]杭州市蔬菜科学研究所,杭州311101 [3]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2014年第3期268-275,共8页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：杭州市农业发展基金项目"杭州市设施农业小气候监测预警系统试验及应用"(2010007)

摘　　要：利用2010-2012年冬季塑料大棚内外气象资料,分析晴天、多云、寡照3种天气类型下的单、双层棚内气温变化特征,采用逐步回归方法构建适于杭州地区的棚内日最低气温预报模型,并对模型进行拟合和预报试验。结果表明:单、双层棚内气温变化趋势基本一致,晴天、多云条件下日变化剧烈,阴雨寡照下较平缓。棚内日最低气温在晴天、多云条件下比寡照时低,易出现低温危害。棚内外日最低气温温差单层棚平均为2.0℃,双层棚平均3.0℃。日最低气温预报模型拟合结果表明,单、双层棚内日最低气温拟合值与实际值的均方根误差(RMSE)分别小于1.0℃和0.5℃,晴天、多云和寡照3种天气类型下,单层棚分别为0.5℃、1.3℃和0.7℃,双层棚分别为0.4℃、0.3℃和0.5℃;实际预报检验表明,模型具有较高的模拟精度和较强的实用性。The meteorological data inside and outside the standard plastic greenhouse was collected during the winter period of 2010 -2012 in Hangzhou. Based on these data, we studied the air temperature variations inside single- covered and double-covered plastic greenhouse, under the three weather types including sunny, cloudy and overcast. And a forecast model of daily minimum temperature inside plastic greenhouse was established by applying the stepwise regression method, verified by model fitting and forecast test. The results showed that the change trend of air temperature inside single-covered greenhouse was nearly the same as that inside double-covered greenhouse. The diurnal variation of the air temperature was drastic in sunny and cloudy day, but was mild in rain day. Under sunny and cloudy day, daily minimum temperature inside greenhouse was less than that under overcast day, so the cold damage was prone to appearing. Inside single-covered and double-covered greenhouse, its daily minimum temperature was 2.0℃ and 3.0℃ higher than that of outside, respectively. The fitting result of the forecast model indicated that root mean square error （RMSE） between simulated values and measured values was lower than 1.0℃ and 0. 5℃ , for single-covered greenhouse and double-covered greenhouse, respectively. As to single-covered greenhouse, the RMSE was 0. 5℃ ,1.3℃ and 0. 7℃, respectively under sunny, cloudy and overcast day, and the RMSE was 0. 4℃ ,0. 3℃ and 0. 5℃ for double-covered greenhouse. Furthermore, the result of the forecast test illustrated that the RMSE between forecast values and measured values of daily minimum temperature was less than 2. 0℃ and 1.0℃, respectively for single-covered greenhouse and double-covered greenhouse. The results of model fitting and forecast test showed that forecast model had high accurate and good practicability.

关 键 词：塑料大棚 双层膜 气温 日最低气温 预报模型 

分 类 号：S625.5[农业科学—园艺学]