基于面板随机效应模型确定鲁北三地棉花干旱指数保险理赔金额  

Indemnity Amount Determination for Cotton Drought Index Insurance in Northern Shandong Province Based on Panel Random Effect Model

作　　者：王倩[1] 曹杰[1] 周兆基 张眉[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2014年第3期293-298,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家公益性行业科研专项课题"气象灾害风险保险指标体系应用"(GYHY201106019);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目(2012SJD630037)

摘　　要：利用鲁北地区滨州市、德州市和聊城市1989-2011年棉花单产资料和各生育期降水量资料,运用三次多项式拟合趋势产量,进而分离气象产量,计算气象灾害造成的棉花减产率,定义减产且干旱的年份(共33个)为有效样本。根据棉花各生育期的降水量和需水量计算缺水量,并设定棉花全生育期的干旱指数。构建面板随机效应模型,定量分析干旱指数(DI)与因干旱造成减产率(DYLR)的关系,即DYLR=0.0003766D1。结果表明,当鲁北三地DI<91.08mm时,单位理赔金额为0;当DI≥91.08mm时,启动赔付,单位理赔金额为保险金额与因干旱造成减产率的乘积。因此干旱指数保险赔付触发值为91.08mm,鲁北三地33个有效样本中有15个样本达到赔付标准。棉花干旱指数保险理赔金额的确定,可避免因信息不对称产生的市场失灵问题,降低经营成本,提高理赔效率,最大程度调动农民投保防灾的积极性。Based on cotton yield data and precipitation data at each growth stage from 1989 to 2011 in Binzhou,Dezhou and Liaocheng in northern Shandong province,trend yield was fitted by using cubic polynomial equation,then meteorological yield was extracted,decomposed,yield reduction rate of cotton due to meteorological disaster was calculated,33 effective samples were defined.Water shortage was calculated according to precipitation and water demand at each growth stage of cotton,and was defined as drought index during whole growth season.The relationship between drought index（DI） and yield reduction rate due to drought was analyzed quantitatively by establishing panel random effect model,namely DYLR = 0.0003766DI.The results showed that the unit indemnity amount was 0 when DI 91.08mm in northern Shandong province,the indemnity was started when DI≥91.08mm,and the unit indemnity amount was the product of the insure amount and yield reduction rate due to drought.Therefore,drought index insurance trigger value was 91.08mm,15 samples of 33 effective samples reached compensation standard in northern Shandong province.Indemnity amount determine for cotton drought index insurance could avoid market failure due to asymmetric information,reduce operation cost and improve indemnity efficiency,and promote farmers positive to disaster prevention for the insure.

关 键 词：棉花 减产率 干旱指数 农业保险 理赔金额 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] F842.66[经济管理—保险]