碳交易的“能源-经济-环境”影响及碳价合理区间测算  

Analysis on Carbon Trading Effects upon Energy-Economic-Environment and Calculation of Reasonable Carbon Price Intervals

作　　者：孙睿[1] 况丹[1] 常冬勤 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第7期82-90,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"基于演化博弈的电力行业二氧化碳排放权定价理论及政策设计"(编号:0903080);高校人文社科自主科研项目"基于CGE模型的区域能源供需动态优化方法及应用研究"(编号:CDJSK10 00 68)

摘　　要：构造纳入碳交易模块以及在生产模块CES函数中纳入碳排放成本的四层嵌套宏观经济CGE模型,采用2007年投入产出数据构造了社会核算矩阵(SAM),用以分析和评价不同总量减排目标情景下,碳价引入对宏观和产业部门层面经济产出、能源消费和碳减排的影响,以及相应合理的碳价水平,得到结论:①在宏观层面上,碳价越高,碳减排效果越显著,GDP损失越大,能源消费越少。综合考虑宏观经济损失和减排效果,确定了各情景下的最优碳价以及合理碳价区间,其中,在减排目标为10%时,碳市场能接受幅度更大的价格波动(6.9-35€/tC)冲击,宏观经济损失相对小,引入碳市场是最好的选择;参考Kaya等式的因素分解,说明碳价所引致的总碳减排效果,主要来自于能源强度效应和技术进步效应;引入碳价,不仅能够降低能源消费,还会引致能源消费结构向低碳方向调整,煤炭消费明显下降。②在产业部门层面,各产业部门特别是能源部门经济产出水平降低,但总体产业结构影响不大;对部门能源消费产生的主要影响是,能源部门和交通运输部门的能源消费总量显著下降;将部门合成能源单位利用成本分解为能源自身价格变动和碳排放成本两部分,得出合成能源单位利用成本变动主要由碳排放成本引起的结论;进一步,能源密集型部门的碳排放成本较高,同时实现的减排率也相对较高,但减排效果仍不充分,建议采取能源资源税和交通燃油税等激励政策,保持必要的能源市场价格水平,同时促进煤炭和交通领域的减排。The paper constructs a four nested CGE model containing a carbon trading module and the cost of carbon emissions in CES function of the production module, establishes Social Accounting Matrix（SAM） based on input-output table of China 2007, which is used to analyze and evaluate carbon pricing effects upon economic output, energy consumption and carbon abatement under different scenarios of emission reduction targets, estimates reasonable carbon price intervals, and finally concludes that： （ 1 ） At the macro- level, higher carbon price causes more carbon abatement, more GDP loss, and less energy consumption. Considering the macro- economic loss and emission effects, the paper identifies the optimal carbon price and reasonable carbon price intervals under different scenarios. It is most reasonable to introduce carbon market under the scenario of 10% carbon abatement target, which can accept heavier price shock （6.9 - 35 /tC） with less economic loss. Referring to decomposition factors of the Kaya equation, the carbon emission reduction effect caused by carbon price is mainly from the macro energy intensity effect and technical progress effect. Introducing carbon price will not only reduce energy consumption but induce a low-carbon energy consumption structure, especially the coal consumption decreased significantly. （2） At the industrial sector level, outputs of all sectors, especially energy sector, will drop, while industrial structure stays unchanged to some extent. The main impact on energy consumption is that the introduction of the carbon price has great effects on the energy sector and the transport sector. Each sector＇ s unit cost of aggregated energy utilization is divided into two parts, the energy own price and cost of carbon emissions. The paper concludes that the unit cost of aggregated energy utilization＇ s change is mainly caused by the cost of carbon emissions. Further, carbon emissions costs of energy intensive sectors are higher, while the reduction rate is relatively high, bu

关 键 词：CGE模型 碳交易 能源消费 碳减排 情景分析 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]