近60年玛河流域绿洲蒸散量变化趋势及其影响因素分析  

The analysis of the variation trend and influencing factors of evapotranspiration in oasis along Manas river valley in the last 60 years

作　　者：杨海昌[1] 张凤华[1] 王东方 邵建荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学/新疆兵团绿洲生态农业重点实验室,石河子832003 [2]河北省任丘市农业局,任丘062550

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第7期18-23,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31160115);兵团国际科技合作项目(2011BC001);实验室重点项目(200801)资助

摘　　要：蒸散量的变化是地表热量和水量平衡中直接受气候变化影响的重要一项,文中采用PenmanMonteith公式计算潜在蒸散量,利用小波分析、Mann-Kendall法等多种统计方法对新疆干旱区玛纳斯河流域近60年蒸散量进行了定量分析。结果表明:玛纳斯河流域多年平均蒸散量为1521.43mm,年蒸散量的增加幅度为15.8mm/10年,在近60年呈现增多-减少-增多-减少的变化趋势,2005年为突变点,18年为蒸散量变化的震荡主周期,通过降水量、温度、风速和蒸散量的相关性分析表明,温度升高是蒸散量增加的主要原因,气温和风速是影响玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散量的主要因素,降水量对蒸散量的影响最小。The change of evapotranspiration is an important factor directly affected by climate change in the surface heat and water balance. In this study, we used the Penman - Monteith equation to calculate potential evapotranspiration, and utilized variety statistical methods to quantitatively analyze the evapotranspiration of Manas River basin of Xinjiang in the arid area during the past 60 years. The results show that the annual mean evapotranspiration of Manas River Basin was 1521.43mm. The rate of evapotranspiration increase was 15.8mm/10 years. In nearly 60 years, the diversification trends was ＂increase - decrease - increase - decrease＂ , it was an abrupt point in 2005. The main cycle of evapotranspiration change was 18 years. Correlation analysis among precipitation, temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration showed that the increase of evapotranspiration mainly was due to the increase of temperature; temperature and wind speed were the major factors affecting the potential evapotranspiration of Manas River Basin, precipitation minimally impacted on evapotranspiration.

关 键 词：蒸散量 变化趋势 影响因素 干旱区 

分 类 号：P426.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]