渭干河流域农业水资源消耗强度及影响因素  

Agricultural water consumption intensity and effecting factors in Ogan River Basin

作　　者：陈大波[1,2] 杨德刚[1] 唐宏[3] 张豫芳[1] 夏文进[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆乌鲁木齐市经济技术开发区(头屯河区)统计局,新疆乌鲁木齐830057 [3]四川农业大学四川省农村发展研究中心,四川成都611130

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2014年第3期509-519,共11页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40971108;41001386);四川省农村发展研究中心项目(CR1309)

摘　　要：农业用水是干旱区水资源消耗的主体,通过流域农业水资源消耗强度和影响因素的研究来探索干旱区农业用水情况及进一步挖掘其节水潜力,对实现干旱区水资源可持续利用和加快社会经济发展具有重要意义。首先通过定量分析法,从区域和种植作物类型分析了2000-2009年渭干河流域农业水资源消耗强度变化特征;而后基于改进的差值分解分析法从不同地域空间探讨了农业水资源消耗强度变化的种植结构效应和效率效应;最后选取了可能影响农业水资源消耗强度的相关指标,运用SPSS回归分析了影响农业水资源消耗强度的因素。结果显示:(1)2000-2009年渭干河流域农业水资源消耗强度整体上呈显著下降趋势,不同流域空间下降幅度大小为上游(-0.99)、中游(-0.29)、下游(-0.22),不同作物水资源消耗强度减幅大小为:其他作物(苜蓿、甜菜和薯类等)(-2.91)、瓜果类(-0.90)、蔬菜(-0.86)、小麦(-0.60)、油料作物(-0.36)、玉米(-0.32)、棉花(-0.20)、林果业(-0.09)。(2)10 a间流域农业水资源消耗强度的下降主要归因于效率效应,其总体贡献率为95.41%,但种植结构效应和效率效应的贡献在不同地域空间表现出差异性。(3)人均农业产值、单位面积平均灌溉用水量、人均水资源量和年降水量对农业水资源消耗强度影响显著,其中农业水资源消耗强度与人均农业产值呈负相关;单位面积平均灌溉用水量、人均水资源量和年降水量与农业水资源消耗强度呈正相关。最后基于研究结果提出了降低农业水资源消耗强度的政策建议。Agricultural water is the main body of water consumption in arid areas. Faced with increasingly severe water shortages,the study of agricultural water efficiency and intensity is an effectively way to explore agricultural water consumption situation and further exploit water-saving potential. It is very significant to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources and to speed up the social economic development in arid areas. Through the quantitative analysis method,from the basin space and planting crops type,the paper analyzed the agricultural water consumption intensity variation characteristics of Ogan River,southern Xinjiang,China during 2000-2009. Used the improved decomposition analysis method,the paper analyzed the structure effect and efficiency effect of water consumption intensity changes. After that,the paper choose some related indicators which may affect the water consumption. Using SPSS regression,the paper analyzed the influence factors of water consumption intensity. The results show as follows：（1） during 2000-2009,agricultural water consumption intensity of Ogan River Basin has a significantly decreasing trend as a whole. The declining ranges in the space are as follows：upper’s range （-0.99） 〉 middle’s one （-0.29）〉 lower’s one （-0.22）. The 8 crop types’ decreased ranges are listed as following： other crops （-2.91）,melon and fruits （-0.90） ,vegetables （-0.86） ,wheat （-0.60）, oil crops （-0.36）, corn （-0.32）,cotton （-0.20）, fruits forestry （-0.09）. （2） In the 10 years,the decrease in agricultural water consumption intensity is mainly attributed to efficiency effect,whose contribution rate is about 95.41% . But the contributions of structure effect and efficiency effect are various in different regions and for different planting crops. The efficiency effect plays a main role in the basin’s different regions,the structure effect shows a smaller promotion,even showing an inhibition. （3） The following factors have signi

关 键 词：农业水资源消耗强度 种植结构效应 效率效应 影响因素 渭干河流域 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济]