辽宁物流产业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Research on Relationship Between Logistics Industry and Economy Increase in Liaoning

作　　者：魏世红[1] 谭开明[2] 张丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁对外经贸学院工商管理系,辽宁大连116052 [2]辽宁对外经贸学院物流管理系,辽宁大连116052

出　　处：《洛阳理工学院学报（社会科学版）》2014年第3期20-23,共4页Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition

基　　金：2012年辽宁省高等学校杰出青年学者成长计划资助项目(编号:WJQ2012028);2011年度辽宁省高等学校杰出青年学者成长计划资助项目(编号:WJQ2011058)

摘　　要：物流产业是一个迅速发展壮大的新兴产业,处于东北亚核心地带的辽宁物流产业的发展具有独特的优势。以辽宁物流产业发展与经济增长的关系为研究对象,在对物流产业与经济增长互促发展机理分析基础上,运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型实证分析了辽宁物流产业发展与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果显示:在5%的显著性水平下,国内生产总值和物流业增长值之间存在着长期均衡关系的协整关系。误差修正模型估计结果显示:物流业增长值的变化不仅取决于国内生产总值的变化,还取决于上一年物流增长值对均衡水平的偏离。格兰杰因果检验结果表明:物流产业发展对国内生产总值的促进作用明显,而国内生产总值不是引起物流增加值变化的原因。The logistics industry is a rapidly developing industry. Lying in the core area of northeast Asia, Liaoning province has a unique advantage to develop its logistics industry. This paper, by taking the relationship between lo- gistics development and growth of economy in Liaoning as the research object and based on the mechanism analysis of mutual promotion of logistics development and economy increase, used co-integration analysis and error correc- tion model to analyze the relationship between economy increase and development of logistics industry in Liaoning. The results showed that under the significance level of 5 % , there existed a long-term equilibrium relationship. The analysis results of error correction model showed that logistics industry development depended not only on the change of the GDP, but also depends on the previous year growth of logistics to deviate from the equilibrium level. Granger causality test result showed that the logistics industry had an obvious effect on GDP , and GDP was not the cause of the change of the added value of logistic industry

关 键 词：物流产业 协整分析法 经济增长 辽宁 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]