我国地方政府债券信用风险测度研究  

A Study on Credit Risk Measure of China Local Government Bonds

作　　者：顾巧明[1] 邱毅[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200052 [2]浙江工商大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《财经论丛》2014年第7期25-30,共6页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(12YJC790043);浙江省教育厅资助项目(Y200906811)

摘　　要：从化解我国地方政府融资平台风险出发,本文运用改进的KMV模型研究了地方政债券发行和违约率之间的关系,运用2010—2012年的数据对深圳地方政府债券信用风险进行模拟测度,得出了深圳政府债券规模发行的合理区间。并从完善商业资信评级制度、发展债券信息收集和处理机构以及创新担保信用等级三个方面提出了加强我国地方政府债券信用风险管理的政策建议。To resolve the risks of local government financing platform , this paper uses an improved KMV model to study the relationship between bond issuance of local governments and default rate .With data of 2010-2012 the paper makes a sim-ulated measure on the credit risk of bonds of Shenzhen local government , and identifies the reasonable size and interval of its bond issuance .The paper argues that improving the business credit rating system , developing bond information gathering and processing agencies , and innovating credit rating of guarantee are important measures to improve credit risk management of lo -cal government bonds in China .

关 键 词：地方政府债券 信用风险 发行规模 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]