内生结构性、短期外生冲击与鸡蛋价格波动——基于31省(市、区)2005-2011年的面板数据  

Endogenous and short-term external impact on egg price fluctuation in China:Based on panel date of 31 provinces(cities or prefectures) from 2005 to 2011

作　　者：蔡少杰[1] 周应恒[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第3期21-26,共6页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173110)

摘　　要：基于中国31省(市、区)2005—2011年的月度面板数据,选取生产成本、收入水平、相关品价格作为主要的内生结构性因素,以及疫情、居民消费价格指数作为主要的短期外生冲击因素,构建双对数模型测度两类因素对鸡蛋价格波动的影响。结果表明:以雏鸡和饲料为主的生产成本的变动对鸡蛋价格波动起着决定性作用,以疫情为代表的突发事件的冲击是引起鸡蛋价格短期波动的主要原因;猪肉与鸡蛋之间具有较强的替代性,猪肉价格的波动会影响居民对鸡蛋的消费;居民收入水平的提高对鸡蛋价格上涨有一定影响;鸡蛋作为廉价生鲜畜产品,受通胀周期的影响不明显。Based on monthly long panel date from Jan 2005 to Dec 2011, the paper analyzes the influential factors of egg price fluctuation in China, and then constructs a econometric model to quantitatively measure each factor＇s size. The result shows that the changes of chicks and feed, as the main components of production costs, determine the price fluctuation of egg. And sudden shocks from emergency case represented by epidemic accounts for the short-term volatility of egg price. Meanwhile, egg can take a good substitute for pork. Besides, the growth of household income has a certain effect on egg price. Finally, as livestock product, egg is protected against inflation cycle.

关 键 词：鸡蛋 价格波动 居民消费 生产成本 收入水平 替代品 疫情 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]