经济危机为什么难以准确预测——来自政治经济学的反思  

Why Is It Difficult to Accurately Forecast the Economic Crisis——Perspective of Political Economics

作　　者：刘明远[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2014年第3期75-89,共15页China Review of Political Economy

基　　金：国家社会科基金项目(批准文号:12BJL003)阶段性成果

摘　　要：经济学为什么没有成功预测到2008年世界经济危机的爆发?针对这个近年来经济学界的热门话题,本文从政治经济学的角度参与了讨论,提出了自己的观点,进行了系统的分析论证。本文认为,这并不是一个新鲜的问题,经济危机是各种矛盾充分展开后的结果,它是一种极为复杂的经济现象,无论马克思主义政治经济学还是西方经济学,直到目前为止,均难以预测到经济危机爆发的准确时间与地点。相较而言,马克思主义政治经济学拥有方法论上的优势,它不仅发现周期性经济危机具有客观必然性,还发现这种经济危机周期性发生的征兆、频率、传导机制、表现形式等。如果能够把马克思主义经济学辨证方法运用于景气研究,会进一步提高周期性经济危机的预测水平。Why economics did not succeed in predicting the outbreak of the World Economic Crisis in 2008？ The author participated in the discussion of the hot topic of Economists in recent years from the perspective of plutonomy, and presented views through a systematic analytic demonstration. The author argues that this is not a new problem, the Economic Crisis is the result of various conflicts, and it is an extremely complex economic phenomena, whether Marxist political economy or economics, so far, are difficult to predict the exact time and place of the Economic Crisis. By contrast, Marxist Political Economy has the advantage of methodology, it not only found the ob- jective necessity of the Economic Crisis, also found the Economic Crisis＇ signs, frequen- cy, conduction mechanisms, manifestations, etc. As a result, it will further enhances the forecasting level of cyclical economic crisis if we can put Marx Marxist dialectical method in the economic climate research.

关 键 词：经济危机 经济周期 经济危机预见 经济波动 景气研究 

分 类 号：F113.7[经济管理—国际贸易]