学校传染病流行的风险识别指标体系构建研究  

Study on the evaluation index system of risk identification for infectious diseases in school

作　　者：张靖[1] 狄娟[2] 谭晓东[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉市疾病预防控制中心,武汉430015 [2]武汉大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2014年第3期65-69,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中澳卫生与艾滋病项目(fdeid 101)

摘　　要：目的围绕学校内影响传染病流行的风险因素建立指标体系,进行早期风险识别,试图在传染病流行之前发现风险因子。方法利用文献研究和实地考察的方法确定初步指标体系框架,应用Delphi法和AHP法,构建学校传染病流行的风险识别指标体系并计算其各指标权重,最后利用问卷调查法进行实证分析研究。结果研究共邀请专家20名,专家对于指标体系做出决策的依据指数Ca为0.88,熟悉程度Cs为0.72,权威系数Cr为0.80。专家协调系数分别为第1轮0.233(P<0.05),第2轮为0.754(P<0.01),第3轮0.504(P<0.01)。最终指标体系由3个一级指标、10个二级指标,49个三级指标组成。结论学校传染病流行的风险识别指标体系协调性好,权重系数设置合理,简单易于使用。Objective To establish the evaluation index system related the risk factors impacting the prevalence of infectious disease in school, and take early risk identification through empirical analysis to find the risk factors before the prevalence of infectious diseases. Methods To decide the preliminary framework of index system by using literature research and field survey. Using Delphi and AHP methods to estabhsh risk identification index system for prevalence of infectious diseases in school and calculate weight of each index. In the end, questionnaire survey was used for empirical analysis. Results Twenty experts were invited in this research. The basis of judgment that experts gave to the overall index system （Ca） was 0. 88,the degree of familiarity that experts gave on the issues （Cs） was 0. 72,and the coefficient of authority that experts gave to the overall index （Cr） was 0. 80. The coefficient of coordination of experts was 0. 233 （ P〈 0. 05） in the first round,0. 754（P〈0. 01）in the second round, and 0. 504 （P〈0.01）in the third round. The last certain index system consisted of three first-level indexes, ten second-level indexes and forty nine third-level indexes. Conclusion The index system is satisfactory and the index weight distribution is rational.

关 键 词：传染病 早期风险识别 指标体系 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]