三峡库区支流富营养化趋势类比预测模型研究  

Analogy model for forecasting eutrophication trends of tributary rivers in Three Gorges Reservoir area

作　　者：尹真真[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市环境科学研究院,重庆401147

出　　处：《人民长江》2014年第12期6-9,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家科技部重点科技项目"三峡库区次级河流回水段富营养化发生条件与预防措施研究"(2004BA604A01-03)

摘　　要：三峡库区支流众多,无法逐一进行长期水体富营养化监测,因此,以三峡库区典型支流大宁河、澎溪河的富营养化趋势研究结果为基础,建立了一套以营养盐负荷、河水流量、水力停留时间为类比因子的水体富营养化趋势类比预测模型,以便简单快速地预测三峡库区其他河流的富营养化情况。类比分析结果显示,预测结果与三峡库区富营养化现场监测结果基本符合,当三峡水库蓄水位为145 m和155 m时,库区常年回水区内的部分支流会出现不同程度的富营养化现象,当三峡水库蓄水位为175 m时,由于正值冬季,气温光照条件欠缺,富营养化程度较轻。此套富营养化趋势类比预测模型,对于宏观了解区域内河流的富营养化整体情况简单有效,可供三峡库区的富营养化研究工作参考。Due to numerous tributary rivers in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, it is difficult to monitor the eutrophication of all the rivers. Based on the research results for the eutrophication trends of Daning River and Pengxi river that are typical tributary rivers in the reservoir area, a set of analogy forecast models for eutrophication was built with the analogy factors of nutrient load, river water flow, and hydraulic detention time to easily and rapidly forecast the eutrophication trends of other rivers in the reservoir area. The analogy analysis results show that the forecast results are basically consistent with the in-field observations;at the water levels of 145m and 155m in the reservoir, some tributary rivers in the perennial backwater zone suffer eutrophication with varying levels;at the water level of 175 m, the eutrophication degree is lower as it is in winter and the light and temperature are all insufficient. This analogy forecast models for eutrophication is easy and effective for understanding the macro eutrophication trends in a watershed and provides references for studies of eutrophication in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

关 键 词：富营养化 类比预测模型 模型验证 三峡库区 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]