基于GM(1,1)数学模型的林产品运输量预测方法  

The Prediction Method for Forest Product Transportation Volume Based on GM(1,1)

作　　者：冯惠英[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建林业职业技术学院,福建南平353000

出　　处：《怀化学院学报》2014年第5期30-32,共3页Journal of Huaihua University

基　　金：福建省教育厅科研基金资助项目(JB11047);福建省南平市科技局资助项目"基于物联网木材追踪体系统的研究"(南财教[2013]58号)

摘　　要：目前我国林产品物流尚处于民间自发活动的阶段,林区政府需要预测未来林产品运输量,以便更好地指导林业生产活动.基于此目的,采用了C#.net开发了GM(1,1)预测计算程序,在已知历史数据较少的情况下,仍然可以完成预测工作.以将乐县为例,预测值与实际值平均相对误差为0.40%.实践证明:GM(1,1)模型适用于县级规模的林产品物流运输量的短期预测,能够帮助林区政府更好地应对运力不足或运力过剩的问题,制定扶持政策,引导林业物流企业有序发展.At present , China＆#39;s forest product logistics is still in the stage of spontaneous folk activities , so the government of the forest area needs to predict the future transportation volume of the forest product in order to guide the forestry production activities more effectively . For this purpose , this study adopted C# . Net and developed the calculation program based on GM （1 , 1 ） mathematical model , which can complete the prediction work even if the known conditions are limited . Taking Jiangle County as an example , the average relative error between the prediction value and the actual value is 0.40% . The practical application has proved that：GM （1 , 1 ） model is applicable to the short-term prediction of the forest product logistics transportation volume in the county - level cities;it can help the government of the forest area respond to the problem of transportation-capacity insufficiency or excess better , so that appropriate supportive policies can be made to guide the orderly development of the forestry logistics companies .

关 键 词：林产品 物流 运输量 灰色模型 

分 类 号：U495[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]