环县55年气温降水变化趋势及对干旱影响分析  

Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change Trend in 55 Years and the Effects of Drought in Huanxian

作　　者：周忠文[1,2] 刘英 田蕴雅 车向军 杜军 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省西峰国家农业气象试验站,甘肃西峰745000 [3]甘肃省西峰国家基准气候站,甘肃西峰745000 [4]甘肃省环县气象局,甘肃环县745700

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第17期215-221,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"农田水分利用效率对气候变化的响应与适应技术"(GYHY201106029)

摘　　要：为了应对气候变化,探讨环县干旱发展规律,达到趋利避害,合理开发利用气候资源的目的。利用甘肃省环县1957—2012年的55年气温、降水资料,用最小二乘法计算了1957年以来的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和平均降水量、降水日数的气候倾向率,结果表明:环县20世纪80年代中期以后气候变暖已成事实,气温变化趋势与同期中国气温变化趋势基本一致,增温率为0.385℃/10 a,平均最高温度增温率高达0.597℃/10 a,显著高于全国增温率,通过YAMAMOTO、累积距平等方法检验1987年是气候突变点,1987—2012年与1957—1986年相比,平均温度增加了1.2℃,冬季增加了1.3℃;环县年降水量有减少的趋势,倾向率为-14.013 mm/10 a,其中春、夏、秋季降水量都呈减少趋势,秋季减少最显著;气候变暖,降水减少后大旱、大涝的极端气候事件明显增多,1987年气候变暖后大旱的概率增加5%,大涝概率增加3%。In order to cope with climate change, explore the arid development law of Huanxian, draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages to rationally develop and utilize the climate resources. The author used the 55 years temperature and precipitation data from 1957 to 2012 in Huanxian, Gansu Province, calculated the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average rainfall, precipitation days weather trend rate by using the least squares method since the average temperature 1957 years. The results showed that： Huanxian climate warming was a fact, the temperature trend and the trend of temperature over the same period after the mid-1980s were basically the same, the warming rate of 0.385℃/10 a, the average maximum temperature was warming rates up to 0.5970C/10 a, was significantly higher than the national warming rate, by YAMAMOTO, cumulative distance equal way to test was to climate catastrophe point 1987 year, 1987-2012 compared with 1957-1986, the average temperature increased by 1.20C, winter increased 1.3℃; Huanxian had a decreasing trend in precipitation tendency was - 14.013 mm/10 a, which in spring, summer and autumn precipitation radiate a decreasing trend, the most significant decreased in autumn; climate warming, extreme weather events after drought reduced precipitation, increased significantly large floods of 1987 warming after the drought of increased probability of 5%, 3% increased in the probability of large floods.

关 键 词：环县 气温 降水 干旱 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]