国际农产品金融化趋势实证研究  

Study on the Trend of Financial Empirical International Agricultural Products

作　　者：文时萍[1] 左璐璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第3期35-41,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition

摘　　要：近年来,国际农产品特别是大米、小麦、大豆、玉米等大宗农产品的价格先后在2006年和2010年急剧上涨。金融化因素逐渐影响农产品市场结构,传统的供求状况难以全面反映农产品价格波动,而原油价格、期货价格、货币供应量与美元汇率的变化大大推动了农产品价格的波动。首先,通过对国际农产品价格及其影响因素建立时间序列模型,着重分析美元汇率、原油价格对国际农产品价格的影响。实证结果表明:2008年全球经济危机以后,农产品金融化趋势明显增强,国际农产品价格与美元汇率和原油价格呈现显著的相关关系。其次,分析了农产品金融化对我国农产品市场的影响,并提出应对农产品金融化趋势的对策建议,指出加快推进人民币国际化和农产品"走出去"战略是提高我国农产品国际竞争力,应对农产品金融化趋势的根本措施。In recent years, international agricultural commodity prices rose sharply in 2006 and 2010, such as rico, wheat, soybeans and corn. Financial factors gradttally influence the market structure. The traditional supply-demand is difficult to fully reflect the fluctuations of agricultural commodity prices, while crude oil prices, futures prices, the money supply and the US dollar index contributed significantly to fluctuations of agricultural commodity prices. Based on the establishment of time series model .of agricultural commodity prices and influencing factors, the dollar exchange rate and crude oil price impact on agricultural commodity prices are focused. Empirical results show that after the 2008 global financial crisis, financial trends of agricultural products increased, which shows an evident correlation between agricultural commodity prices and the influencing factors. The financial impact on Chinese agricultural products market is also analyzed, concluding with proposals to meet the agricultural financial trend. Accelerating the RMB internationalization strategy and positive ＂going out＂ is the radical measure to meet the financial trend of agricultural products.

关 键 词：农产品 金融化 原油价格 美元指数 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]