四川省春季林火气候模型的建立  

Establishment of Serious Forest Fire Zone Climatic Model of Spring in Sichuan Province

作　　者：甘薇薇[1] 刘博 詹兆渝[3] 尹波[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所 [2]78138部队 [3]四川省气候中心 [4]四川省林业厅森林防火指挥办

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2014年第2期77-80,共4页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：四川省气象局川气课题2012-预研-01

摘　　要：本文统计了四川省1979～2012年森林火灾数据,得到了本省林火的年际变化及区域分布特征,确定了林火发生重灾区.通过分析林火与气象条件的关系,利用多元统计回归方法建立了重灾区林火次数气候回归模型,并对模型进行了评估检验,模型效果比较理想,凉山州、攀枝花市、甘孜州三市州的正确率分别达到55.6％、66.7％和88.9％.Using the original data of forest fires frequency from 1979 N 2012 and the weather stations data in Sichuan province, an analysis is made on the spatial and temporal distribution of forest fires frequency and its relationship with meteorological conditions, and the major disaster area by forest fires is determined. The multivariate statistical regression analysis method is used to establish climate impact assessment models of forest fires frequency respectively in the major disaster area, and then the models are assessment checked. The results show that the models are very useful, and the correct rate reached 88.9% in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture.

关 键 词：森林火灾 气候 回归模型 

分 类 号：S716[农业科学—林学]