企业所有制结构与对外贸易发展的动态关联研究——政治经济学视角下的VAR模型实证分析  

Study on Dynamic Correlation between Study on Dynamic Correlation between Enterprise Ownership Structural Adjustment and Foreign Trade Development: Based on VAR Model in Perspectives of Political Economics

作　　者：薛飏[1] 冯根福[1] 胡啸兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《西北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第4期58-63,共6页Journal of Northwest University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部"春晖计划"基金项目(S2010010)

摘　　要：企业所有制结构调整与对外贸易持续发展是中国30多年改革开放的两个重要侧面。基于政治经济学利益集团理论分析,运用VAR动态关联模型进行实证研究,发现1978—2011年间企业所有制结构与对外贸易发展间跨期动态关联影响具有滞后性,而且对外贸易发展相较企业所有制结构变动对VAR二元动态关联系统各变量变动影响更大。据此认为应优先促进对外贸易健康发展,同时稳妥推进企业所有制渐进式改革;在具体政策实践上,应统筹协调好改革与发展中各利益集团的不同诉求,并在充分考虑政策滞后性基础上着眼长远进行动态决策。Enterprise ownership structural adjustment and foreign trade development are two of important aspects of 30 - odd - year reform and opening - up process of China. Guided by Interest Group theory of Political Economics, the paper reveals that there is a significant inter - temporal dynamic lagged correlation between enterprise ownership structural adjustment and foreign trade development from 1978 to 2011, and foreign trade development exerts more powerful effect on relevant variables in bi - variant VAR System against enterprise ownership structural change, which supports the priority of robust foreign trade development and the step - by - step route of enterprise ests of various groups and ownership structural adjustment with much attention paid to harmonization of inter- lagged effect in process of dynamic policy - making

关 键 词：企业所有制结构 对外贸易发展 利益集团 动态关联 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]