纸质图书出版量的变化趋势模型及生命周期分析  

Trend Model of Paper Books Publication and Its Life Cycle Analysis

作　　者：罗健文[1] 曾晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]清远职业技术学院图书馆,清远511510

出　　处：《出版科学》2014年第4期56-59,共4页Publishing Journal

摘　　要：在数字出版快速发展时期,开展对纸质图书生命周期的研究,科学地提出其出版量的变化趋势模型,对制订行业发展战略与规划具有现实意义。本文分析我国纸质图书出版量,提出其变化趋势模型,并对纸质图书作为一类商品的生命周期进行了定量分析。研究表明:纸质图书正处于其生命周期的成熟期,为延长纸质图书的生命周期,提出了促进纸质图书出版的建议。In the period of rapid development in digital publishing, to carry out research on the life cycle of paper books and to point out the trend model of publication scientifically makes for the formulation of development strategy and planning for publishing. This paper proposes the trend model of publication, based on the number of books publication, and has a quantitative analysis of the life cycle of paper books which act as commodity. It is found that paper book is in the mature period of its life cycle. In order to extend the life cycle of paper books, some countermeasures to promote the paper book publishing are proposed.

关 键 词：纸质图书 变化趋势 模型 生命周期 

分 类 号：G230[文化科学]