应用捕获-再捕获法和除数法对重庆市MSM人群规模进行估计  

Application of Capture-recapture Method and Division Method to Estimate the Population Size of Men Who Have Sex With Men

作　　者：吴艾琳 张维[2] 吴国辉[2] 许濒月[2] 周超[2] 欧阳琳[2] 周颖[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院预防医学系,太原030001 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2014年第5期353-355,共3页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：全球基金RCC艾滋病项目(CHN-304-G03-H);美国疾病预防控制中心全球艾滋病项目(3U2GPS001188);中国疾病预防控制中心青年科研基金(2011A104)

摘　　要：目的相互嵌套应用捕获-再捕获法和除数法估计重庆市男男性行为人群(MSM)人群规模,为艾滋病防治工作提供科学依据。方法 2012年在为期2个月的第1次捕获期间记录光顾重庆市城区4个男男同志酒吧人次数,又结合再捕获时的面对面访谈机会对调查对象光顾男男同志酒吧的平均次数进行调查,相互嵌套应用捕获-再捕获法和除数法对2012年重庆市MSM人群规模进行估计。结果除数法估计重庆市MSM人群规模为11 483人;捕获-再捕获法估计重庆市MSM人群规模为16 891人。2012年重庆市MSM人群规模区间为11 483人到16 891人。结论除数法适用于对MSM人群中相对活跃人群的规模进行估计,在捕获-再捕获法中嵌套使用除数法花费低,可低价高效地反映估计人群的规模,两种相互嵌套使用可行。Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men （MSM） in Chongqing munieipality with nested application of both capture - recapture method and division method. Methods During the two months in 2012, the first capture number in the four gay bars of face - to - in Chongqing was recorded and by chance face interview the average number of the MSM was survey in recapture. Nested application of capture -recapture method and the division method were applied to estimate the size of MSM in Chongqing municipality in 2012. Results With division method, the MSM population size was estimated as 11 483, while with capture -recapture method the population size was estimated as 16 891. The MSM population size ranged from 11 483 to 16 891. Conclusion Division method is suitable for estimating the population size of the active MSM and can lower the cost when nested in capture - recapture method. The nested application of the two methods is feasible.

关 键 词：除数法 捕获-再捕获法 男男性行为者 人群规模估计 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]