基于故障树的震压造型机可靠性模糊综合评判  

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the reliability of the jolt squeezing machine based on the fault tree method

作　　者：吴天魁 王波[1] 周晓辉[1] 赵旖旎[2] 李旭东[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]吉林大学管理学院,长春130012

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2014年第3期98-102,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：针对震压造型机工作失效影响因素复杂且具有模糊性,提出了故障树分析法和模糊综合评判法。首先分析出导致震压造型机失效的主要原因有4个,即压实无力、不震击、震击无力及震击不稳,并找出了导致这些因素发生的原因,建立了震压造型机失效故障树;其次求出了故障树中各因素的结构重要度;接着以设备工作中"压实无力"为例,采用模糊集理论与专家综合评判相结合的方法获得了导致震压造型机压实无力中模糊不确定因素"内部泄漏严重、压力损失过大及压实时压力较低"的失效概率,最后利用模糊综合评判法进行分析,得出了该设备的压实状况。结果表明,利用故障树和模糊综合评判法对震压造型机故障进行评价是可行的。This paper has brought about a fault tree analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in hoping to explore the reliability of the jolt squeezing machine based on the fuzzy set theory with the expertise comprehensive evaluation. It is just for this purpose that we have first of all found out the complicated influential factors that may lead to the failure of the said jolt squeezing machine, including the compaction weakness, shock-free state, shock inability and shock instability. In addition, in order to build such a fault tree of the machine failure, we have to work out the rationality of the above said events step by step. Secondly, we have to prepare the minimum cut-sets of the fault tree in a descending order and formulate the hierarchical importance degree coefficient of the events to find out the more relatively important factors. And, thirdly, ＂the compaction weakness＂ should be taken as an example as the factors of ＂heavily internal leakage, the excessive pressure loss and the low pressure of the real-time pressure＂ of fuzzy and uncertain nature. Since it may not be possible to arrive at the failure probability directly, we should work out the failure probability of the fuzzy factors based on the fuzzy set theory and the expertise comprehensive evaluation method which can help to convert the natural language of the experts into fuzzy numbers through fuzzy math algorithms. And, then, it would be possible to convert the fuzzy numbers into fuzzy probability value by the fuzzy ranking method, by which we can detect the probability importance degree coefficient and the critical importance degree coefficient to ensure the weight sets of the evaluation elements according to the failure probability of the fuzzy factors. And, now, we can also figure out the membership matrix of the evaluation indicators of the evaluation grades in terms of the expertise comprehensive evaluation. And, eventually, it would be possible to work out the evaluation results of the corresponding formula so that the comprehe

关 键 词：安全工程 可靠性 故障树 模糊集理论 模糊综合评判 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]